#2496. Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

October 2026publication date
Proposal available till 30-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript3510 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Demography;
Economics and Econometrics;
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Abstract:
The article analyzes the mortality rate in Italy during a pandemic. The study builds on a machine learning management approach to build a more realistic counterfactual death scenario in the absence of COVID-19. The results show that supervised machine learning methods outperform the official method by significantly improving the accuracy of local mortality predictions in “normal” years, especially in small and medium-sized municipalities.
Keywords:
Coronavirus; COVID-19; Italy; Local mortality; Machine learning

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