#11747. Testing public policy at the frontier: The effect of the $15 minimum wage on public safety in Seattle

July 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Law;
Public Administration;
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Abstract:
Using a synthetic differences-in-differences estimator, we consider the impact of landmark minimum wage legislation on public safety. Although there is speculative evidence for an increase in commercial burglaries, we find little evidence that the city experienced a change in its aggregate rate of violent or property offending relative to other cities. To better understand the mechanisms underlying our findings, we investigate the impacts of the local wage law on employment and earnings for the city low-skilled labor market. We detect no meaningful adverse effects on the employment rates of low-wage workers. Our results suggest that the city increased its minimum wage without compromising public safety. The city experience shows that increasing wages can be a tool for increasing the opportunity cost of crime without reducing employment levels. To the extent that other cities enact higher minimum wages to a level that generates unemployment among low-skilled workers, public safety changes could be considerably different.
Keywords:
Crime; minimum wage; synthetic control method; unemployment

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