#11495. Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents

August 2026publication date
Proposal available till 10-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Law;
Psychology (all);
Pathology and Forensic Medicine;
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Abstract:
We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.
Keywords:
Barricade; crisis; hostage; negotiation; risk assessment; violence prediction

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