#9827. Extension of FEMA and SMUG models with Bayesian best-worst method for disaster risk reduction

September 2026publication date
Proposal available till 23-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Social Sciences (all);
Earth and Planetary Sciences (all);
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More details about the manuscript: Science Citation Index Expanded or/and Social Sciences Citation Index
Abstract:
Turkey is one of the countries that face many natural and man-made disasters. The entire geography of Turkey is affected by these disasters and the secondary disasters resulting from them. Tunceli is located in the Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey and is a disaster-prone region. Therefore, it is important to carry out an adaptable hazard analysis for the region and support the national disaster risk reduction struggle. In this study, a comprehensive disaster hazard analysis was conducted for Tunceli province, and potential mitigation measures were discussed. As methodological background, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and SMUG (Seriousness Manageability Urgency Growth) models, which are well-known methods, were extended under the Bayesian Best-Worst Method (BWM). Bayesian BWM is a pairwise comparison-based multi-criteria decision-making method that takes a probabilistic view of the experts group decision without losing information, providing less pairwise comparison and higher consistency.
Keywords:
Bayesian best-worst method; Disaster risk reduction; FEMA; Hazard prioritization; SMUG

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