#9783. Stuck on a phishing lure: differential use of base rates in self and social judgments of susceptibility to cyber risk

September 2026publication date
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Social Psychology;
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Abstract:
How do people assess the likelihood of personal risk in online activity? In three pilot experiments and one preregistered experiment, we tested the motivational and cognitive mechanisms that shape self and social judgments of cyber security. In Pilot Studies 1–3, we probed for evidence of differential use of base rate information in forecasting the likelihood oneself or another person would engage in a risky behavior. In the preregistered experiment, we gathered direct evidence of differential use of base rate information through covert eye-tracking.
Keywords:
base rates; eye-tracking; Self and social judgment; self-enhancement; weighting

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