#8870. On Guessing: An Alternative Adjusted Positive Learning Estimator and Comparing Probability Misspecification With Monte Carlo Simulations

October 2026publication date
Proposal available till 29-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript3510 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Social Sciences (miscellaneous);
Psychology (miscellaneous);
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Abstract:
Some practitioners disaggregate the flow of knowledge and accounting for student guessing, but these estimates are sensitive to misspecification of the probability of guessing correct. We examine a transformed measure of true positive learning that under some knowable conditions performs better when students’ ability to guess correctly is misspecified.
Keywords:
disaggregated learning; gain measurement; Monte Carlo simulation; value-added learning

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