#6549. Future LNG competition and trade using an agent-based predictive model

February 2027publication date
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Energy (miscellaneous);
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More details about the manuscript: Science Citation Index Expanded or/and Social Sciences Citation Index
Abstract:
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is an alternative method to transport natural gas (NG), more versatile than pipeline gas, and helps increasing the availability, affordability and use of NG compared to carbon-intensive coal and oil. In the LNG market, various expansions projects have been planned and underway for the 20XXs. Although some projects were put hold or delayed due to the demand shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic, the LNG market demonstrates the potential to expand further in the future. This study employs an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to evaluate these prospects of expansion in demand and supply, competition among various suppliers, and potential trade challenges in the coming decades. This model combines the usual contractual engagements of the LNG market and a representation of the spot market to simulate the possible traded quantities. The model is validated by comparing simulations with the historical record of the LNG trade in 20XX and 20XX, reflecting its accuracy in replicating such real data.
Keywords:
Agent-based model; LNG market; LNG projects; Simulation

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