#5620. Emergency decision-making model of suppliers with updating information in cases of sudden accidents

August 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Engineering (all);
Computer Science (all);
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More details about the manuscript: Science Citation Index Expanded or/and Social Sciences Citation Index
Abstract:
In view of uncertainties caused by sudden accidents (SAs) and affecting retailers’ demand in many districts, it is difficult for suppliers to determine when and how many products to procure/produce. Considering a supply chain consisting of two types of competing suppliers and multi-retailer, this work studies the suppliers’ optimal emergency procurement/production decision (EPD) with information updating. Firstly, a probability evolution model with information updating to describe the probability of the retailers’ procurement behaviour and the occurrence probability of supply disruption (SD) is inferred. Secondly, suppliers’ EPDs regarding retailers’ procurement behaviour and occurrence probability of SD are discussed and a real-time updated emergency decision-making model (EDM) is proposed based on Stackelberg game and Bayesian inference. Thirdly, the value of information updating and the critical factors that affect the suppliers’ optimal EPD are quantitatively analysed. Numerical examples are finally provided to verify the EDM.
Keywords:
Bayesian inference; Emergency decision-making; Information updating; Sudden accident; Supply disruption

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