#5359. How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts

August 2026publication date
Proposal available till 13-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

The title of the journal is available only for the authors who have already paid for
Journal’s subject area:
Law;
Strategy and Management;
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law;
Transportation;
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Abstract:
This paper explores the causal relationship between income and air travel demand to provide insights for the future growth of the aviation industry, with particular focus on the recovery period after a crisis. Using US data, we estimate the long-run and short-run income elasticities of air passenger demand and we estimate how they vary over the business cycle.
Keywords:
Airline demand; Airline traffic forecast; Bi-directional causality; COVID-19; Impact of recession; Income elasticities

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