#5039. Measuring the impact of financial cycles on family firms: how to prepare for crisis?

July 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Management of Technology and Innovation;
Management Information Systems;
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Abstract:
Financial cycles have sizeable economic effects, as witnessed during the 20XX financial crisis. However, despite the topic’s research importance, there is limited literature on how financial cycles and financial crises affect individual family firms. To measure the impact of financial cycles, we use the credit-to-GDP gap indicator from the Bank for International Settlements. Using the credit-to-GDP gap as a proxy for financial cycles, we use panel structural vector autoregression (Abrigo and Love 20XX), Wald tests of Granger causality (Granger 1969), and impulse response functions (Lutkepohl 20XX; Lutkepohl et al. 20XX). We prove that family firms are less vulnerable than non-family firms to financial cycles during both financial booms and busts. Non-family firms are highly vulnerable to financial cycles, performing worse during both booms and busts. Our study is the first to explore the impact of financial cycles on the micro level with a focus on family firms. The results could help managers and practitioners better form their business policy by looking at family firms’ experiences.
Keywords:
Crisis; Family firms; Financial cycles; Panel structural vector autoregression

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