#4673. Spying from Space: Reconnaissance Satellites and Interstate Disputes

August 2026publication date
Proposal available till 22-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Political Science and International Relations;
Sociology and Political Science;
Business, Management and Accounting (all);
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More details about the manuscript: Science Citation Index Expanded or/and Social Sciences Citation Index
Abstract:
Despite considerable interest and debate, it has proven surprisingly difficult to demonstrate a systematic link between technological change and patterns of war and peace. At least part of the challenge may reside in finding the right place to “look” for such relationships. Technological change alters what nations can do to one another (capabilities), but in ways that are typically reflected by deals (diplomatic bargains) rather than actions. We theorize that reconnaissance satellites have revolutionized the use of information gleaned from spying in ways that discourage states from engaging in serious conflicts with one another. We find that when either the potential aggressor or target in a dyad possess reconnaissance satellites, they are significantly less likely to become involved in serious conflicts. This effect is especially powerful when both states possess reconnaissance satellites.
Keywords:
conflict; militarized interstate disputes; reconnaissance; satellites; technology

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