#3371. What Drives Migration to Europe? Survey Experimental Evidence from Lebanon

October 2026publication date
Proposal available till 23-05-2025
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Journal’s subject area:
Demography;
Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous);
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Abstract:
Amid a stark increase in international migration at the global scale, we lack individual-level evidence that causally adjudicates between migration’s many drivers. Respondents were shown the profile of a hypothetical Syrian refugee and asked whether they recommended that the refugee migrate to the European Union. The vignette randomly primed five prominent causes of migration, including push factors (political instability and poverty) and pull factors (open borders, employment opportunities, and cultural openness). All five primes yielded positive effect sizes, which underlines that prominent theories of migration are complements, not substitutes. Taken together, the evidence suggests that empirical models of migration can be improved if they take into consideration both pull and push factors, rather than prioritizing one over the other.
Keywords:
experiment; migration; refugees; poverty

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