#3322. Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers

August 2026publication date
Proposal available till 18-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Sociology and Political Science;
Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous);
Strategy and Management;
Applied Psychology;
Decision Sciences (all);
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Abstract:
Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates to support decision making. Such information is often communicated verbally rather than with precise numeric values, yet people are not taught to perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging and multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individuals receive probability information in verbal rather than numerical point format. These findings generalized between expert and non-expert samples and when controlling for calculator use. Experiment 4 also revealed that the advantage of the point over the verbal format is partially mediated by strategy use. Participants presented with point estimates are more likely to use mental computation than guesswork, and mental computation was found to be associated with better accuracy. The findings suggest that where computation is important, probability information should be communicated to end users with precise numeric probabilities.
Keywords:
accuracy; arithmetic; coherence; numeric probability; uncertainty communication; verbal probability

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