#3147. Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence

January 2027publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Finance;
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Abstract:
This article reviews recent developments and new findings in the literature on learning to predict learning experiments (LtFE). In general, the stylized outcome of typical LtFEs, namely rapid convergence to a rational expectations equilibrium in negative feedback markets and persistent bubbles and crashes in positive feedback markets, is a consistent outcome with few deviations from the baseline (e.g., the number of entities in each market, price forecasting and quantity decision, short-term and long-term forecasts, price or yield forecasting).
Keywords:
Behavioral finance; Bubbles and crashes; Experimental finance; Learning to forecast experiment; Rational expectations

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