#2807. Fiscal deficit forecasts in Europe: Evidence for a double standard?

November 2026publication date
Proposal available till 30-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript3000 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Political Science and International Relations;
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all);
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Abstract:
The budget forecasts of international organizations have been sharply criticized after the eurozone sovereign debt crisis due to excessive optimism. Currently, international organizations are also accused of applying double standards. This paper evaluates projections provided by the IMF, the European Commission and the OECD based on a group of EU countries and selected large countries. Five years after the sovereign debt crisis, we are still finding overly optimistic forecasts for Portugal and Spain.
Keywords:
Deficit forecasts; Excessive deficit procedure; Fiscal supervision; Public finance

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