#2551. Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data

November 2026publication date
Proposal available till 30-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript3510 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Social Sciences (miscellaneous);
Economics and Econometrics;
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Abstract:
The article presents a model with time-varying parameters that jointly explains the dynamics of inflation in the euro area and inflation expectations. The results show that the inclusion of survey data results in a more modest decline in trending inflation in recent years and an intensification of the economic downturn. Moreover, the impact of the economic downturn and import prices on inflation has increased in recent years, and survey respondents have been more active in renewing their beliefs during the financial crisis.
Keywords:
euro area; inflation dynamics; inflation expectations; non-linear state-space model; trend inflation

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