#2514. A Note on the COVID-19 Shock and Real GDP in Emerging Economies

November 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all);
Finance;
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Abstract:
The article analyzes a Threshold Expansion Global Vector Autoregression (TGVAR) model for several countries to analyze the response of real GDP in emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (USA, UK and Germany ) to the shock of COVID-19. The results show that the impact of the COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in developed countries than in emerging economies. The model is more accurate in predicting real GDP growth in developing countries, but we attribute the weaknesses in advanced economies forecasts to the effectiveness of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies aimed at accelerating recovery in these economies.
Keywords:
COVID-19; emerging economies; Real GDP; threshold-augmented GVAR

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