#2433. Turning point and oscillatory cycles: Concepts, measurement, and use

November 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Economics and Econometrics;
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Abstract:
The article analyzes the concepts of turning moment and oscillatory cycles. The results show that turning points can be identified in non-stationary series, but since it is difficult to determine oscillations in such a series non-parametrically, harmonic models are usually used to capture any oscillatory phenomena. It is shown that oscillations are often absent in the series to which the models are applied. It has been argued that when they are present, attention should be paid to medium-term fluctuations of 8-30 years, rather than the standard 2-8 years of the business cycle. It is analyzed whether there are many merit in this argument, and it is concluded that there is not.
Keywords:
band-pass filter; business cycles; financial cycles; harmonic models

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