#12267. Democratic Norms, Social Projection, and False Consensus in the 20XX U.S. Presidential Election

July 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Sociology and Political Science;
Marketing;
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Abstract:
We examine individuals’ views about democratic norm violations related to the peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of election results and the link between those views and broader perceptions about support for social election norms in the American public. There is a strong link between personal views about election norms and social perceptions about election norms. Consistent with research in psychology on the false consensus bias, people expect the public at large to share their views about election norms. We demonstrate that political ideology moderates the relationship between personal views about election norms and public perceptions about these norms. Among conservatives who do not support the election outcome, the perception is that only a small portion of the general public supports the election. On the other hand, among conservatives who do support election norms, the perception is that a large share of the public shares their views.
Keywords:
20XX presidential election; consensus bias; election norms; elections; false consensus effect; social norms

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