#12229. From Rebelling to Ruling: Insurgent Victory and State Capture in Africa

July 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Political Science and International Relations;
Sociology and Political Science;
Safety Research;
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality;
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Abstract:
Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents. We argue that these outcomes–state capture, failed state capture, or mixed–depend on two key dimensions of political and military centralization before victory: (1) the distribution of power between rebel organizations participating in the civil war and (2) the communal structure within them.
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