#11895. National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 20XX

July 2026publication date
Proposal available till 28-05-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

The title of the journal is available only for the authors who have already paid for
Journal’s subject area:
Sociology and Political Science;
Places in the authors’ list:
place 1place 2place 3place 4
FreeFreeFreeFree
2350 $1200 $1050 $900 $
Contract №11895.1 Contract №11895.2 Contract №11895.3 Contract №11895.4
1 place - free (for sale)
2 place - free (for sale)
3 place - free (for sale)
4 place - free (for sale)

Abstract:
In an era when elections scholars expected national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modelling of national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modelling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–20XX). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–20XX).
Keywords:
Efficacy; negative advertising; polarization; presidential election turnout

Contacts :
0