#11583. Hot spots policing in a high-crime environment: an experimental evaluation in Medell?n

August 2026publication date
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Law;
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Abstract:
The research tests direct, spillover, and aggregate effects of hot spots policing on crime in a high-crime environment. We identified 967 hot spot street segments and randomly assigned 384 to a six-month increase in police patrols. We also use non-experimental streets to test for spillovers onto non-hot spots and examine aggregate effects citywide. Our results show an improvement in short-term security perceptions and a reduction in car thefts, but no direct effects on other crimes or satisfaction with policing services. We see larger effects in the least secure places, especially for short-term security perceptions, car thefts, and assaults. We find no evidence of crime displacement but rather a decrease in car thefts in nearby hot spots and a decrease in assaults in nearby non-hot spots. We estimate that car thefts decreased citywide by about 11%. Our study highlights the importance of context when implementing hot spots policing.
Keywords:
Crime; Field experiment; Hot spots; Police; Spillover effects

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