#11508. Explaining the Consumption of Illicit Cigarettes

August 2026publication date
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Journal’s subject area:
Law;
Pathology and Forensic Medicine;
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Abstract:
What drives the consumption of illicit cigarettes? While criminology has rarely addressed the divers of the illicit cigarette markets from a theoretical and empirical perspective, studies from other disciplines point to two classes of causes. This study tests the influence of both price and non-price factors on the illicit cigarette market. Multilevel growth curve analysis—three-level analysis for longitudinal measures—of the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level in the European Union. The analysis focuses on 247 regions in the EU between 20XX and 20XX. This study shows that both price and non-price factors influence illicit cigarette consumption. Lower affordability of legal products, proximity to sources of cheap cigarettes, higher national income inequality, greater population density, and the levels of illicit cigarettes in neighboring regions are associated with higher illicit consumption. The geographic concentration of illicit consumption and smuggling calls for the creation of anti-illicit-trade units in most densely populated areas or custom task forces at the most sensitive borders. These campaigns should focus on the societal consequences of purchasing illicit cigarettes together with illustrating the harm of consuming tobacco products.
Keywords:
Cigarette smuggling; Cigarette trafficking; Illicit trade; Multilevel analysis; Smoke reduction

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