#7276. Quantifying phenological asynchrony of phyto- and zooplankton in response to changing temperature and nutrient conditions in Lake M?ggelsee (Germany) by means of evolutionary computation

October 2026publication date
Proposal available till 11-06-2025
4 total number of authors per manuscript0 $

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Journal’s subject area:
Environmental Engineering;
Software;
Ecological Modeling;
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Abstract:
There is a need to determine and quantify global change induced phenological asynchrony because of possible loss of biodiversity and implications for the food web. The phenological sensitivities of cyanobacteria and cladocerans towards phosphorus and nitrogen enrichments revealed similar trends of summer peaks as identified for warming, most likely contributing to phenological asynchrony. The combination of warming and nutrient reductions showed increased spring maxima but almost unchanged summer peaks of cyanobacteria demonstrating that gradually decreasing phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations may outweigh warming effects on phytoplankton growth. The proposed ensemble of complementary inferential models proved to be a viable tool for determining long-term dynamics and phenological asynchronies in plankton communities under the impact global changes.
Keywords:
Eutrophic polymictic lake; Eutrophication; Hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA; Inferential modelling; Phenological asynchrony; Phenological sensitivities; Plankton; Scenario analysis; Warming

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